Week 9 Preview: UCLA

Prepare for Indiana's Week 9 matchup against the UCLA Bruins with a comprehensive BSB Preview!

Michigan State was deemed a trap game for Indiana by various pundits, but this week’s matchup might be the true trap. While UCLA travels across the country and plays the game at 9:00 a.m. body time, it doesn’t change the fact that UCLA is 3-0 in its last three games after looking so bad during its non-conference schedule that many (me included) thought the Bruins might go winless this season.

UCLA has quietly risen to 68th in ESPN SP+, making the Bruins the toughest team among the weaker opponents on Indiana’s schedule — just ahead of Old Dominion, Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

However, it would take a Herculean effort from UCLA to beat Indiana in Bloomington, where Curt Cignetti still has not lost and where Indiana has won 316-90 against Power 4 opponents since 2024.

Let’s get into the data…

In case you missed it in last week’s Recap: Indiana is now expected to go undefeated in 2025.

In this preview:

• Opponent Overview

• Advanced Stat Preview

• QB Profiles

• UCLA OL Preview

• UCLA Key Contributors

• EPA Distribution by Scenario

• What BSB is Watching For

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Opponent Overview

The DeShaun Foster Era seemed to level out a bit as the 2024 season progressed. The Bruins ended the season 4-2 in its last six games and made a big hire in former Indiana QBs coach Tino Sunseri — who recruited not only current Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar through the portal but also former Tennessee QB and current QB Nico Iamaleava — to lead its offense. Despite maybe not adequately replacing solid defensive talent, there was some mild optimism around the program. Then, UCLA dropped every non-conference game, leading to Foster’s firing and Tim Skipper’s promotion to interim head coach. Sunseri and DC Ikaika Malloe were also let go within the next week.

After an initial loss to Northwestern the week following Foster’s firing, UCLA has been an entirely different team under Skipper — as well as new OC Jerry Neuheisel (former TEs coach) and new DC Kevin Coyle (who joined the staff in September after starting the season as a senior analyst for Syracuse).

The Bruins defeated then-No. 7 Penn State, followed by wins over Michigan State and Maryland. Curt Cignetti noted in his weekly press conference that they’re treating UCLA like a 3-0 team and focusing on these three weeks of play during prep, as they should.

During the last three weeks, UCLA ranks 28th in net success rate (+4.0%). When disaggregated between offense and defense, it’s clear that UCLA has been one of the most consistent teams in the Big Ten during this stretch.

When using EPA to place that success into context, it shows that the key difference-maker has been UCLA’s defense, though the offense has been much improved and has found a level of consistency that takes advantage of the opportunities given by its defense.

Coyle, the new DC, is a stout defensive mind. His most prestigious position in the last decade was DC for the Miami Dolphins (2012-15), and he spent four seasons as a senior analyst for LSU (2018-2021), including for LSU’s national championship in 2019. He was also the DC for Fresno State from 2022-24, when Skipper was LBs coach and interim HC, before Coyle joined an ascending Syracuse program as an analyst for this season. He’s taken a struggling UCLA defense and made it respectable on the fly.

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Advanced Stat Preview (The Chart)

Some Observations: