200 Stats for the 2023 IUFB Season
As a thanks for subscribing to Bite-Sized Bison, here are 200 stats for the upcoming IUFB season!
As a thank you to all who subscribe to Bite-Sized Bison, I wanted to publish a subscriber-only “200 Stats for the 2023 IUFB Season” piece to celebrate crossing the 200-subscriber mark. This is not an easy feat when discussing Indiana Football, so let me explain how I constructed this list:
I avoided the most obvious stats, like last year’s passing yardage total or an individual’s total scrimmage yards. I wanted each stat to be informative and/or thought-provoking.
I avoided most topics I’d written about recently. You can read those below:
I addressed each opponent at the bottom so that this can be a resource to return to.
I spread out the stats across several areas of the program, such as “QB/Passing,” “Defensive Line,” “Recruiting,” and others.
Lastly, and most importantly, I mixed positive with negative. When writing about Indiana Football, it can be easy to dwell purely in the negative statistically. I tried to present a bit of both, and if something was negative, it either 1.) was a well-known idea discussed widely last season, or 2.) was expounded on and given context.
This post is shareable, so if you feel the need to share with non-subscribers, feel free. I hope you enjoy this list, and thank you for reading!
(Also, I went slightly over 200. Sorry!)
General
1. Indiana is rated No. 83 in the nation by ESPN SP+ (71st offensively and 100th defensively).
2. Indiana’s strength of schedule is rated 7th in the nation by ESPN SP+.
3. ESPN SP+ projects Indiana to go 2-10, with wins over Akron and Indiana State (assumed since ISU isn’t FBS and therefore not rated). Rutgers (77th) is the most winnable game.
4. Indiana has the second-worst odds to win the Big Ten, at 0.3%.
5. Indiana has the 64th-nest odds to win the National Championship in 2023, at 0.2%.
6. FanDuel has Indiana’s odds to win 6+ games at +400.
7. Indiana lost the most snaps to the portal and gained the most snaps to the portal (in the Big Ten) this offseason. Read more on that here.
8. Indiana added 40 new scholarship players to its roster this offseason.
9. Indiana’s opponents were flagged for the most yards per game (65) in the Big Ten. That was 6th in the nation.
Offense
10. Indiana owned the third-worst time of possession (25:33) in the nation.
11. Indiana ranked 127th in the country in third-quarter points per game, with 2.7.
12. They allowed 7.5 third-quarter points per game, which ranked 101st-worst.
13. Indiana ranked 115th in the nation in punts per offensive score (1.7). That still ranked 10th in the Big Ten, above Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa.
14. Against ranked opponents, Indiana gained 229 yards per game last season. Against unranked opponents, it gained 361.
15. Indiana recorded 353 yards per play at home last season (11th in the Big Ten), and on the road, it averaged 293 (12th).
16. Indiana lost 40% of its non-QB usage this offseason.
17. When Indiana advanced the ball passed the opponent’s 40-yard line (59 times), it averaged 3.4 points per opportunity.
18. Indiana’s offense allowed opposing DBs to inflict a havoc rate of 8%. For reference, Indiana’s DBs inflicted a havoc rate of 9.4% in 2020.
19. Looking purely at usage rates, Indiana leaned heavily on its RB trio, using them on 41% of its offensive plays (16% of its passing plays).
20. Jaylin Lucas was used on 8% of offensive plays in 2022 – 14% of rushing plays, 5% of passing plays. Expect that to go up in 2023.
21. Indiana used Dexter Williams on 9% of its offensive plays in 2022. It also used Williams on 9% of its passing plays and 9% of its rushing plays.
22. Indiana’s 22% success rate on passing plays in 2022 was the lowest Indiana has recorded since CollegeFootballData.com began recording the stat in 2014. Coincidentally, 2014 was the only other year that success rate was below 30%. (See more on this in the QB/Passing section.)
23. At TE, James Bomba and Aaron Steinfeldt combined to be used on 2% of offensive plays. Bradley Archer was used on less than 1% of Stanford’s plays. Someone will need to step up at TE.
24. In 2022, Emery Simmons (7%) was used on more offensive plays than AJ Barner (5%).
Quarterbacks/Passing
25. Indiana attempted the 8th-most passes per game (40.1) nationally in 2022 but ranked 87th in passing yards per game (217.4).
26. College Football Data measures success rate based on situational metrics (for example, if 50% of attainable yards on 1st down are gained or if 70% of attainable yards are gained on 2nd down, etc.). Indiana’s passing game had a success rate of just 22% even though IU attempted the 8th-most passes per game nationally.
27. In addition to the passing success rate, College Football Data measures explosiveness – predicted points added on successful plays (do successful plays earn you points?) – and Indiana posted a plus figure.
28. Indiana completed just 48.1% of its passes on the road in 2022.
29. With Dexter Williams injured, Indiana will have a total of 10 snaps of experience in the QB room on Week 1.
30. Connor Bazelak overwhelmingly owned the most dropbacks under pressure in the Big Ten in 2022, but he ranked second-lowest in responsibility for QB pressure, meaning he was second-least at fault for the pressure he endured.
31. With less than 2.5 seconds to throw, Dexter Williams had the lowest completion percentage in the Big Ten. While only 26% of Williams’ dropbacks were less than 2.5 seconds, 52% of Connor Bazelak’s were less than 2.5 seconds (4th in the Big Ten).
32. Dexter Williams went 7-for-24 with 2.5 seconds or more to throw. However, he was one of two QBs in the conference to commit zero turnover-worthy plays with that much time to throw, and he threw the ball deeper (20 yards on average) than any Big Ten QB with at least 2.5 seconds to throw.
33. Dexter Williams recorded the second-highest percentage of play-action dropbacks (46%) in the Big Ten last season. Largely due to RPOs.
34. Dexter Williams recorded the lowest adjusted completion percentage among Big Ten QBs with at least 50 dropbacks in 2022.
35. Dexter Williams also recorded the lowest completion percentage (34%) among the FBS QBs with at least 50 dropbacks. The lowest bowl-eligible QB completion percentage in Power 5 play was Anthony Richardson, with 53%. He’s not Anthony Richardson.
36. Dexter Williams posted the 9th-best rushing grade among all Big Ten QBs with at least 50 dropbacks (24QBs). He posted the 21st passing grade.
37. In that same group, Dexter Williams averaged the deepest passes, recording an average depth of target of 13.4 yards.
38. Tayven Jackson averaged 13 rushing yards per game during his high school junior and senior seasons. Brendan Sorsby averaged 112 per game as a senior.
39. In Tayven Jackson’s high school senior season (14 games) in Indianapolis, he threw 187 passes (66% completion rate) for 1,842 yards (131 yards per game), 21 touchdowns, and 3 INTs. He carried the ball 63 times for 181 yards (2.9 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns.
40. In Brendan Sorsby’s high school senior season (7 games) in Dallas, he threw 151 passes (52% completion rate) for 1,272 yards (181 yards per game), 14 touchdowns, and 3 INTs. He carried the ball 101 times for 788 yards (112 yards per game) and 14 touchdowns.
41. Tim Carpenter, Indiana’s 2024 QB commitment, is rated as the No. 25 QB in the class by 247Sports, and The Daily Hoosier reported that he ran a 4.60 40-yard dash. In comparison, Brendan Sorsby has been on record for a 4.66 40-yard dash and Tayven Jackson ran a 4.97 at his Elite 11 Regional.
Blocking
46. Indiana was graded 117th in the nation in pass blocking and 120th in the nation in run blocking by PFF.
47. 94 Big Ten OLs recorded at least 200 snaps in 2020. Indiana placed 7 in the bottom-25 in PFF Offensive Grade. Nebraska placed 5, and Rutgers placed 3. No other team placed more than 2.
48. Wisconsin’s 2022 offensive line under Bob Bostad was graded 2nd in the Big Ten in pass-blocking and 5th in run-blocking.
49. Wisconsin had three offensive linemen rated in the top-15 in the Big Ten for blocking efficiency last season under Bob Bostad. The Badgers’ lowest rated lineman was 39th. Indiana’s best was 26th (Mike Katic), and he was the only Hoosier to rate inside Wisconsin’s range.
50. Of the returning OLs, Mike Katic allowed the fewest QB pressures in true pass sets – excludes screens, play action, etc.
51. Before Josh Sales stepped in for Parker Hanna at RT in Week 7 of last season, Hanna allowed the 8th-most QB pressures in all of Division I football (40). He achieved that number in six games.
52. Josh Sales recorded the best run-blocking grade on the team in 2022. He ranked 67th in the Big Ten.
53. Returning Matt Bedford is significant for the Indiana offensive line, and seeing his development under Bostad will be interesting. However, Bedford’s blocking grades were comparative to Luke Haggard’s. Haggard finished the 2022 season 29th in the Big Ten in pass-blocking (73), while Bedford finished the 2022 season 34th (68).
54. In that 2022 season, Bedford posted the lowest run-blocking grade of all qualifying OLs.
55. That 2022 season was also Bedford’s only consistent season between run- and pass-blocking. For example, in 2020, Bedford posted the 3rd-best (!) run-blocking grade among qualifying Big Ten OLs, but he also posted the worst pass-blocking grade by a wide margin.
56. Redshirt freshman Carter Smith, who is rumored to be a possible left tackle in 2023, was rated by 247Sports as the No. 207 overall prospect and the No. 19 OT coming out of high school. His composite rating was No. 731 nationally and No. 61 OT.
57. Max Longman allowed just 13 QB pressures in 232 pass-blocking snaps at UMass last season. That’s fewer than any Indiana OL with as many pass-blocking snaps. Mike Katic allowed 14 in 573 pass-blocking snaps, and Josh Sales allowed 12 in 176.
58. Of the 35 Big Ten tight ends to record at least 100 blocking snaps, James Bomba graded 30th in run-blocking. While he only earned 8 targets in the passing game, his receiving grade was 5th-worst in the conference.
59. Bradley Archer, the transfer TE from Stanford, blocked on 81% of his snaps in 2022 and recorded the 20th-best run-blocking grade out of 40 qualifying TEs in the PAC-12.
Receiving
60. Indiana targeted its RBs more than any other Big Ten team, as Shaun Shivers, Josh Henderson, and Jaylin Lucas combined for 75 targets.
61. Cam Camper ended the 2022 season graded 18th in the conference in PFF’s receiving grade. His 81 yards per game would have ranked 5th in the conference if he qualified.
62. Of the 48 Big Ten WRs to record at least 30 targets in 2022, Donaven McCulley was graded 39th and Andison Coby was graded 46th.
63. Indiana primary slot receiver, Emery Simmons, graded 52nd in the conference when targeted in the slot position. Indiana had very little slot presence.
64. Among the 72 tight ends in the nation to record at least 30 targets, AJ Barner (49 targets) ranked 65th in PFF’s receiving grade.
65. Jaylin Lucas recorded the best receiving grade in the Big Ten when targeted on screens. Josh Henderson ranked 6th.
66. Josh Henderson recorded 9.9 yards per reception when targeted on screens. That ranked 7th in the Big Ten.
67. Despite missing 5 games, Cam Camper ranked 5th in the Big Ten in targets of 10-19 yards downfield.
68. Cam Camper was targeted the second-most times in man-to-man coverage in the Big Ten, and his receiving grade in those scenarios was 7th-best in the conference. However, his receiving grade against zone coverage ranked 29th.
69. Dequece Carter was a part of a Fordham offense that recorded the best PFF receiving grade of any FBS or FCS offense.
70. Dequece Carter’s 80.9 receiving grade would’ve ranked 5th among Big Ten receivers in 2022.
71. Dequece Carter was targeted 20+ yards downfield 41 times in 2022 and recorded a 99.9 PFF Receiving Grade at that distance. Only 12 other receivers in FBS play achieved that grade at that distance in 2022. His average depth of target was also 21.8 yards, which would be second-best in FBS play, and he caught at least one pass of 40+ yards in 8 different games last year.
72. Go read the Dequece Carter Bite-Sized Bison piece.
73. Among all Big Ten tight ends to record a target in 2022, Aaron Steinfeldt ranked 36th in PFF’s receiving grade, which is actually ahead of AJ Barner, who ranked 41st.
Below is a longer list of stats needed to understand Clemson transfer WR EJ Williams.
74. EJ Williams was used on 4% of Clemson’s plays during his true freshman season in 2020, but he was only used on 1% of plays in 2022.
75. EJ Williams caught just 16 of his 41 targets at Clemson during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He’s caught 4 of his 11 contested targets in his career, adding 0 of 5 in 2022.
76. Among all WRs in FBS play with at least 20 targets, EJ Williams recorded the worst drop grade in the nation, as a result of the highest drop percentage (36.4%) in the country. In that same group, he posted the lowest reception percentage (37%) as well.
77. The season that EJ Williams was effective (2020), he posted the 31st-best receiving grade and the best drops grade among ACC WRs with at least 40 targets. That year, he had Trevor Lawrence throwing him passes, and when DJ Uiagalelei took over, Williams’ grades and production tumbled. This would be a great observation if Indiana had any QB nearly as talented as either Lawrence or Uiagalelei.
78. When EJ Williams is at his most effective, he is catching passes 10-19 yards downfield on designed targets, typically in the middle of the field.
Running Backs/Rushing
79. Indiana’s 110.83 rushing yards per game ranked 112th in the nation in 2022.
80. Indiana rushed for 4.0 yards per carry on first down rushes, ranking 100th in the nation.
81. Against ranked opponents, Indiana rushed for 2.36 yards per first-down carry.
82. Indiana posted a minus figure in explosiveness in the run game, which calculates predicted points added on successful plays. Expect this to go up if Jaylin Lucas is more involved in the run game.
83. Josh Henderson posted the 15th-best rushing grade among all Big Ten running backs with at least 50 attempts last season.
84. Indiana gained the most yards per rush (5.5) in the gap between center (Zach Carpenter) and left guard (Mike Katic) in 2022.
85. Jaylin Lucas led the Big Ten in percentage of rushing attempts resulting in breakaways (designed runs of at least 15 yards). He recorded a breakaway on 60% of his attempts.
86. Josh Henderson and Jaylin Lucas ranked 2nd and 4th, respectively, in PFF’s receiving grade among Big Ten RBs with at least 50 carries last year.
87. Chris Turner ranked 9th in the ACC in pass blocking, among RBs with at least 50 carries, and graded 29th in rushing and 25th in receiving.
88. Josh Henderson, Jaylin Lucas, and Chris Turner only fumbled the ball twice combined. Both came from Henderson.
Defense
89. Indiana’s 449 yards allowed per game in 2022 were the most allowed by any FBS Tom Allen defense. that mark ranked 119th in the nation.
90. Indiana allowed 38.2 points per game playing on the road, which ranked 123rd out of 131 teams.
91. In 2020, Indiana forced 18 turnovers in 8 games. In the 24 games since then, Indiana has forced 22.
92. Indiana allowed 53 touchdowns in 2022, ranked 114th in the nation and lowest in the Big Ten.
93. Indiana recorded the second-worst defensive third-down conversion rate in the Big Ten. Only Michigan State allowed more third-down conversions.
94. Indiana’s top-3 worst 2022 tacklers are all returning in 2023 – Jared Casey, Noah Pierre, and Josh Sanguinetti.
95. The player returning in 2023 (not named Aaron Casey) with the most stops – plays ended by individual effort – for IU in 2022 is Matt Hohlt, with 12.
96. Josh Rudolph’s PFF Defense grade was 83.5, his rush-defense grade was 85.2, and his tackling grade was 80.2. Those are all plus grades.
97. Josh Rudolph committed zero penalties in 677 snaps in 2022.
98. Among the nation’s linebackers with at least 200 snaps, Jacob Mangum-Farrar recorded the third-worst PFF Defensive Grade (36.9) while at Stanford in 2022.
Defensive Line
99. Alfred Bryant ended the season tied for 7th in the Big Ten in QB hurries.
100. Among 54 Big Ten defensive ends to record at least 100 pass-rushing snaps in 2022, Indiana didn’t have a DE grade higher than 43rd.
101. Andre Carter was ranked by 247Sports as the No. 21 overall transfer in the portal this offseason. For reference, Dasan McCullough was ranked No. 19.
102. In just 42 more snaps (715 to 673), Andre Carter topped Alfred Bryant (IU’s most productive DL in 2022) in tackles (by 27), in TFLs (by 6.0), and in sacks (by 3.0).
103. Andre Carter’s PFF pass rush grade was 90.1, tied for 11th-best in the nation among DEs with at least 250 pass rush attempts.
104. Andre Carter hit the passer 17 times in 2022, the second-highest total in the country among all DEs.
105. Andre Carter’s win percentage (wins against blocking on pass rushes) was 15th in the nation in 2022, at 20.9%. Indiana’s best DE in this category was Alfred Bryant, with 10.3%.
106. A hybrid defensive end-linebacker frame and skillset, Lanell Carr rushed the passer on 101 of his 319 snaps at West Virginia in 2022.
107. Lanell Carr, on 101 pass-rush snaps, recorded a pass-rush grade of 67, which would’ve finished second behind Aaron Casey for Indiana defenders with at least 50- pass-rush snaps in 2022 and well higher than any IU defensive lineman (Beau Robbins had a 59 grade on 185 pass-rush snaps).
108. Lanell Carr’s pass-rush grade was 12th among the 40 Big 12 DLs with at least 100 pass-rush snaps.
109. Philip Blidi posted the 8th-best pass-rush grade (68) on Texas Tech’s defense in 2022, and that grade was significantly higher than Indiana’s best interior pass rusher, Demarcus Elliott (58).
110. Philip Blidi rushed the passer on 112 snaps last season. Indiana had 9 defenders rush the passer at least 100 times, and none of them came close to Blidi’s pass-rush grade, and the best returning interior defensive lineman was Patrick Lucas, with a grade of 54.
111. In August 2022, 247Sports named Anthony Jones, who will be in the Bull and OLB spots for Indiana in 2023, the “under-the-radar freshman to watch” at Oregon last season.
112. It’s worth keeping an eye on true freshman Ta’Derius Collins, given that he was a top-500 prospect (the No. 46 edge rusher nationally) and the lack of depth behind Andre Carter. He could flash in four games and redshirt or even bolster the No. 2 spot behind Carter if Trey Laing can’t hold the spot.
113. Marcus Burris was the No. 132 overall prospect in the Class of 2021 and was recruited by the same Texas A&M coach who recruited and developed Myles Garrett. Much like Ta’Derius Collins, he could find a way into Indiana’s interior DL rotation in 2023.
114. Of the 53 SWAC DLs with at least 300 snaps in 2022, Southern transfer DE Trey Laing recorded the 6th-best pass-rush grade (81). He also tied for 3rd in the same group with 8 total sacks.
115. However, Laing’s win percentage against individual blockers (11%) was middle-of-the-road among SWAC DEs and so was his pass rush production – sacks, QB hits, and QB pressures compared to total pressures.
Secondary/Coverage
116. Bradley Jennings Jr. was third on the team with 5 PBUs in 2022. He played LB.
117. Tiawan Mullen allowed 6 touchdowns in his first three seasons. In 2022, he allowed a team-high 8 touchdowns. That was tied with three others for the most in Division I football.
118. Indiana’s best coverage grade was owned by Devon Matthews, and that grade ranked 87th in the Big Ten. The second-best coverage grade among IU DBs was Tiawan Mullen, who ranked 139th.
119. Tiawan Mullen rushed the passer 25 times during his first two seasons (2019-20), including 4 sacks in 2020. In his last two seasons, he rushed the passer just 9 times.
120. On pass plays, Josh Sanguinetti recorded 7 total tackles, missed 4 tackles, and made zero stops.
121. Jamier Johnson’s best game at Texas was against Alabama, when he played 50 snaps and earned an average PFF Defensive Grade for the game. That’s a win every time for Indiana.
122. Nic Toomer allowed the third-lowest reception rate (47%) of any Stanford DB targeted at least 10 times last season. At Indiana, Chris Keys recorded the lowest reception rate (55%) for this category in 2022, and the best returning DB for this group was Noah Pierre (64%).
123. The last time an Indiana DB was targeted at least 10 times and recorded a reception rate as low as Nic Toomer was Tiawan Mullen (44% on 27 targets) and Jamar Johnson (47% on 19 targets) in 2020.
124. Jamier Johnson allowed a 75% reception rate at Texas last year, but his tackling grade was third on the team and he allowed only 17 YAC on 12 receptions.
125. Tyrik McDaniel was rated as the second-best JUCO safety in this year’s class.
126. In just five 2022 games in JUCO, Tyrik McDaniel recorded 25 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, 4 PBUs, and a blocked kick.
127. Kobee Minor recorded 53% of his career snaps in Texas Tech’s final two games of last season.
128. In 137 snaps last season, Kobee Minor forced two fumbles and allowed 3 YAC (on 7 receptions allowed).
Special Teams
129. Indiana ranked first in the Big Ten in kickoff returns of 40+ yards, 50+ yards, 60+ yards, 70+ yards, 80+ yards, and 90+ yards.
130. Indiana ranked 15th nationally in opponent field goal percentage (65%). Its 3 blocks ranked 19th.
131. Chris Freeman got the fourth-most average hangtime on his kickoffs in the Big Ten. With that being said, he also had the fourth-highest return percentage and the 10th-best PFF grade.
132. James Evans increased his net yards per punt by nearly 3 between 2021 and 2022, and he more than doubled his punts inside the 20 (15 to 32).
133. Indiana went 14-for-20 on field goal attempts last season.
134. Jaylin Lucas ranked 4th in the country in kickoff return yards per return, with 28.14.
135. Against ranked opponents, Jaylin Lucas ranked 44th in the country, with 19.14.
136. Against winning teams, Jaylin Lucas ranked 55th, with 20 yards per return.
137. In 7 games against winning FBS teams, Jaylin Lucas returned 12 of his 21 overall returns. Winning teams didn’t kick to Lucas often.
Recruiting
138. Indiana’s 2023 transfer portal class was ranked 19th by 247Sports.
139. Indiana was tied with Ole Miss for 5th-most transfers signed in the 2023 class.
140. Among the 11 programs to sign at least 20 transfers from the portal in 2023, Indiana’s class was ranked 8th.
141. Only 3 of Indiana’s 20 signees from the Class of 2020 are on the 2023 roster; 9 of the 14 signees from the Class of 2021 and 18 of the 22 signees from the Class of 2022 are on roster.
142. Only 11 of the 37 (30%) scholarship upperclassmen – excluding long-snapper Sean Wracher and punter James Evans – were recruited by Indiana out of high school.
143. Indiana’s 2022 class was ranked 30th in the nation, with the help of Dasan McCullough’s commitment. Indiana must hang onto and develop that talent for success in the near future.
144. Indiana did not earn any commitments from the top-10 2024 in-state prospects.
145. Indiana’s 2024 recruiting class is currently ranked 59th in the nation. 247Sports began including the new Big Ten programs into its Big Ten recruiting rankings beginning with this class, and Indiana remains second-to-last, above Northwestern.
Opponents
Week 1: Ohio State
146. Ohio State’s defense, with the help of new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and current IU defensive coordinator Matt Guerreri, improved from 41st (graded by PFF) in 2021 to 3rd in the nation in 2022.
147. Ohio State safety Lathan Ransom posted the 23rd-best PFF Defensive Grade among all Big Ten defenders in 2022, and both safeties – Ransom and Ronnie Hickman – recorded the 13th and 5th ranked coverage grades, respectively. Expect OSU’s safeties to be disruptive.
148. After missing most of 2022 due to injury, TreVeyon Henderson (Ronnie Walker’s brother) not only posted the 5th-best rushing grade in the Big Ten in 2021, but he also had the 5th-most targets and averaged the most receiving yards per game among all Big Ten RBs.
149. Miyan Williams was ranked No. 627 nationally when he signed with Ohio State, yet he’s posted the 3rd-best (2021) and 2nd-best (2022) rushing grades in the Big Ten (minimum 50 carries). Expect him to start but to split the snaps with Henderson.
150. Marvin Harrison Jr. owned the 5th-best receiving grade among all WRs in the nation with at least 20 targets.
151. Marvin Harrison Jr. had the 2nd-most contested targets in the Big Ten, catching 11 of 29 contested balls (62%). The only other Big Ten WR close to that was MSU’s Jayden Reed, who caught 11 of 17 (65%). Cam Camper had 22 contested targets, but he only caught 9 (40%).
152. Emeka Egbuka is often lost in OSU WR discussions because of Harrison Jr., but he had the 5th-most targets, the 5th-best receiving grade, the 6th-best receiving percentage, the 2nd-best YAC per reception, and the 3rd-best yards per route run among Big Ten WRs. Extremely dangerous duo.
Week 2: Indiana State
153. Justin Dinka, who led Indiana State in rushing with 895 yards last season, recorded the best PFF Offensive Grade on the team in 2022, and among all FCS RBs with at least 100 carries (128 RBs), he ranked 70th.
154. Cade Chambers, the redshirt sophomore and last year’s MVFC Freshman of the Year, is most likely to start against Indiana. He completed just 44.5% of his passes in 2022.
155. ISU safety Rylan Cole recorded the 2nd-best PFF Defensive Grade on the team last year and tied for the team lead in tackles (84). Perhaps his most impressive stat, though, is that he allowed 14 receptions on 30 targets (47%). Only 5 DBs in the Big Ten allowed a reception percentage that low on at least 30 targets.
Week 3: Louisville
156. After Jeff Brohm took the head coaching job at Louisville, the Cardinals brought in 25 commitments – the 4th-most in the nation – and their class ranked 12th. Included in that transfer class were former IU target Brady Allen (QB) and former IU commit Rodney McGraw (DE).
157. Louisville's 2023 high school recruiting class ranked 24th in the nation and included 7 4-star prospects.
158. Jamari Thrash, the transfer from Georgia State, will be a problem for IU, as he posted the 23rd-best receiving grade among all FBS WRs in 2022. Among 253 qualifying WRs, Thrash allowed his QB to throw the 36th-best rating when he’s targeted, perfect for a QB early in the season as Brohm implements his system.
159. Brohm’s system heavily depends on its QB, and he’s reunited with former Purdue and Cal QB Jack Plummer, who posted the 47th-best passing grade among all QBs with at least 150 dropbacks in 2022 – again, at Cal. He threw for more than 3,000 yards and completed more than 62% of his passes.
160. Jack Plummer was the 3rd-most pressured QB in FBS play last year, and still posted the above stats and grades. Probably didn’t receive the credit he deserved for that.
Week 4: Akron
161. Senior QB DJ Irons is the offensive player to watch for Akron. He received the 76th-best passing grade from PFF among the nation’s 253 qualifying QBs in 2022.
162. Irons passed for more than 2,600 yards and was second on the team with 304 rushing yards. In addition to this, he received a plus rushing grade from PFF, 46th among the nation’s QBs.
163. Akron didn’t have a rusher eclipse the 500-yard mark. The Zips ranked 126th in the nation in rushing yards per game (IU ranked 112th, for reference).
164. Akron ranked 117th in both run defense and coverage grades and placed outside of the top-80 in yards allowed per game in each phase as well.
Week 5: Maryland
165. Taulia Tagovailo felt a decent amount of pressure in 2022 (32% of dropbacks), even though his offensive line was the 3rd-least responsible for QB pressure in the Big Ten according to PFF. Maryland also ranked outside of the top-70 in run-blocking. So the Terps replaced four of their OL starters with transfers in the offseason.
166. Maryland lost 22 players to the transfer portal and gained 10.
167. CJ Dippre, one half of the TE duo that combined for 86 targets last year, transferred out of the program, leaving the primary TE as Corey Dyches.
168. Even though Taulia Tagovailoa faced the 2nd-most QB pressures in the Big Ten – behind Connor Bazelak – he still recorded the 3rd-best NFL Passer Rating in the conference.
169. However, Taulia Tagovailoa recorded the highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays when under pressure (7.1%). For reference, Connor Bazelak had the 3rd-lowest percentage (4.2%).
170. Despite working with one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the conference, Roman Hemby nearly eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark and scored 10 times. His 5.26 rushing yards per carry ranked 8th in the Big Ten (Josh Henderson and Shaun Shivers were both outside of the top-20). If the Maryland OL is improved at all, he will be extremely dangerous.
171. Maryland’s pass rush was graded 122nd in the nation last year, 6 spots ahead of Indiana.
172. Maryland’s highest-rated pass rusher, Durell Nchami, is gone now, and the Terps didn’t do much to address the issue. They brought in the No. 481 rated transfer, Donnell Brown, but would likely go with senior Quashon Fuller, who recorded 1 sack in 100 pass rushes in 2022. There’s a good chance whoever is playing QB won’t face too much edge pressure that week.
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: Michigan
173. Michigan’s pass-blocking graded outside of the top-70, and its run-blocking graded outside of the top-30.
174. Blake Corum earned the best Offensive Grade of all RBs in the nation, even higher than Bijan Robinson.
175. JJ McCarthy’s turnover-worthy play percentage was third-lowest in the Big Ten, meaning he didn’t commit turnovers often. He only threw 2 interceptions.
176. However, his passing grade was 6th in the conference and outside of the top-40 in the nation.
177. Michigan’s pass rush was the lowest-graded phase of the defense, ranking 36th in the nation, and Mazi Smith, who rushed the 4th-most times of any individual defender in the Big Ten, is gone. They’re expected to turn to Braiden MCGregor and Jaylen Harrell, who both ranked 30th and 31st in the Big Ten in pass-rush last season and combined for fewer pass-rush snaps than Smith alone.
Week 8: Rutgers
178. According to ESPN SP+, Rutgers is the most winnable game on Indiana’s conference schedule.
179. Rutgers was graded as the best non-bowl-eligible defense in the Big Ten last year.
180. The highest-rated transfer Rutgers landed during the offseason was ranked No. 293 in the portal (backup CB Eric Rogers).
181. No Rutgers rusher or receiver passed the 500-yard mark in their respective phases.
182. Two transfers – Naseim Brantley (Western Illinois) and JaQuae Jackson (California University (Pennsylvania)) – are expected to start for Rutgers this year.
183. Rutgers was graded as the 4th-best tackling team and the 4th-best pass rush in the Big Ten in 2022.
Week 9: Penn State
184. Drew Allar, who is expected to start at QB for Penn State, was rated as the No. 3 prospect nationally and the No. 1 QB in the Class of 2022.
185. Penn State graded 10th in the Big Ten in both pass- and run-blocking last year.
186. Penn State lost its top-10 Big Ten WR Parker Washington in the slot, and he will be replaced by Sean Clifford’s brother, Liam, and one of my favorite up-and-coming Big Ten players, Kaden Saunders.
187. Cornerback Kalen King recorded the 4th-best coverage grade in the Big Ten last season, and his brother Kobe, who is expected to start at LB this year, recorded the 17th-worst Defensive Grade in the conference (in 289 snaps).
188. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined to be used on 40% of Penn State’s offensive plays last year. That could actually increase this season.
189. Penn State will have some inexperience at WR. The most involved WR expected to start in 2023 was Harrison Wallace, who was used on just 3% of Penn State’s offensive plays.
Week 10: Wisconsin
190. SMU transfer QB Tanner Mordecai was ranked as the No. 7 QB in the portal.
191. SMU recorded the No. 23 passing grade in the nation last year, thanks to Mordecai. Mordecai was 11th in the nation in passing yards per game (293.7).
192. Tanner Mordecai’s adjusted completion percentage (73.1%) was just over 6 points higher than Graham Mertz’s (66.8%).
193. Wisconsin’s defensive line allowed opponent offensive lines to gain just 2.6 line yards per rush (average is just over 3.0).
194. Maema Njongmeta ranked 6th in the Big Ten in both Defensive Grade and stops in 2022, and he returns at LB for Wisconsin in 2023.
Week 11: Illinois
195. Illinois also added a QB in the transfer portal – Luke Altmyer out of Ole Miss. Altmyer was ranked as the No. 10 QB in the portal and was the No. 21 QB coming out of high school in 2021.
196. Altmyer has taken 30 dropbacks in college football play. His greatest volume was for Ole Miss against Central Arkansas last year, when he threw 13 passes and recorded 2 touchdowns and an interception.
197. Chase Brown recorded a 1,600-yard season at RB for Illinois and was used on nearly as many offensive plays as QB Tommy DeVito was (43% to 37%).
198. Replacing Chase Brown is expected to be Reggie Love, who was used on 8% of Illinois’ offensive plays last season and averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
199. Pat Bryant and Isaiah Williams make the second-best returning WR duo in the Big Ten (behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka at OSU). Both are top-5 returning receivers, according to 2022 PFF receiving grades.
200. Illinois was graded as the 4th-best defense in the Big Ten, but in 2023, they are expected to start 6 lowerclassmen and they lost the conference’s highest-graded defender, Devon Witherspoon.
201. Illinois’ transfer portal class ranked 13th in the Big Ten.
Week 12: Michigan State
202. Michigan State boasted an offensive line graded in the top-5 in both run- and pass-blocking last season. Three of the 5 starters are returning.
203. Payton Thorne was graded 9th in the conference last season, but he just won the starting QB job at Auburn.
204. Mel Tucker hasn’t named a starting QB yet, but there have been good things coming out of camp about redshirt junior Noah Kim. Kim was the No. 1,270 overall prospect in the 2020 class and has recorded 20 dropbacks in his career.
205. MSU’s best returning pass-catcher is TE Maliq Carr, who graded 34th in the conference, and their best returning WR is Tre Mosley, who graded 48th. Mosley caught 35 passes last year, and Keon Coleman, who was in line to start, transferred to Florida State.
206. MSU was second to Indiana in the Big Ten in most passing yards allowed per game last season.
Week 13: Purdue
207. Texas transfer QB Hudson Card only played in 6 games last season due to Quinn Ewers, and when he did play, he only attempted 109 passes. In those attempts, he didn’t wow. His passing grade was 11th in the Big 12, but he only committed 2 turnover-worthy plays and had the 3rd-best adjusted completion percentage.
208. Purdue lost its top two receiving targets in WR Charlie Jones and TE Payne Durham. The two were the most targeted in their positions in the conference and combined for 156 catches, as well as 18% of Purdue’s usage on offense.
209. After Charlie Jones, Purdue’s highest graded WR in 2022 was Mershawn Rice, who is expected to be the No. 1 starter this season, with the 40th-best receiving grade in the Big Ten.
210. TJ Sheffield, a former 4-star WR, is expected to be Purdue’s No. 2 WR, and he earned the 49th-best receiving grade in the conference last season, between Emery Simmons and Donaven McCulley.
211. Purdue allowed just under 150 rushing yards per game, which ranked 9th in the Big Ten, but their run defense was graded 11th in the conference by PFF.
212. Purdue and Michigan State were the lowest-rated transfer portal classes among classes to bring in 15 commitments. Purdue ranked 34th nationally.
213. Under new Purdue head coach Ryan Walters in 2022, the Illinois defense finished 2nd nationally in points allowed, 3rd in total defense, 3rd in yards per play, 1st in interceptions, and 1st in takeaways.