Touts and Doubts: 2023 Football Preview
What's worth excitement and what's worth doubt for Indiana Football in August 2023?
Well, the 2023 season is here, and the over/under for Indiana wins is 3.5. If you’re reading this, I salute you. And thank you. Seriously.
I’ve been away for months now, and various changes personally will reflect in the length of these newsletters (but not the quality!). In other words, what used to be an ironic name, Bite-Sized Bison, will likely be closer to the original intent. Note: This one is longer because I’m leaning on previous published and unpublished work.
Regardless of over/unders and other projections, I’m stoked to get the season started because, in the end, it’s still football, and I love this sport and how it operates at the collegiate level.
Below is a quick list of Touts and Doubts. Touts are what I’m excited about for this Indiana team, and Doubts are…what I doubt. Neither is limited to the list depicted, particularly the Doubts.
I know I tend to be a pessimist, so let’s begin with the Touts.
Touts
Andre Carter & Dequece Carter
I’ve done extensive dives into both of these guys – Western Michigan DE transfer Andre Carter and Fordham WR transfer Dequece Carter – and none of that has changed.
I ranked Andre Carter as Indiana’s best addition from the transfer portal in the offseason (read the full rankings here), and I stand by that. Dasan McCullough was such a unicorn-type of talent that the closest replacement Carter will be serving is Beau Robbins’ role, and I said this was the best singular improvement from the portal. He recorded an 81.3 Defensive Grade (via PFF), better than any IU defender in 2022, and he recorded the 11th-best Pass Rush grade among Division I defenders with at least 250 pass rush attempts. He’s legit. Read more about him here.
I ranked Dequece Carter No. 9 on that transfer portal ranking even though I also thought he would see the field immediately (seems like he will now too). I didn’t exactly elaborate as to why he was ranked so low, but it was because receivers have limiting factors (QB ability, offensive scheme, play-calling, etc.). For example, the system he’s coming from yielded three 1,000-yard receivers; Indiana’s will not. But I think he’s a stud (maybe should’ve had him a bit higher, admittedly). He’s played nearly 2,000 snaps in his career, and his deep-ball abilities are insane – 2022 average depth of target equal to second-best in FBS (21.9 yards), 99.9 PFF Receiving Grade on 41 targets 20+ yards downfield. He does more than this as well. Highly recommend you read more on him here, an entire BSB dedicated to him.
Linebackers
Look, I’m quick to criticize Tom Allen and Company (deservedly so) when it seems there isn’t exactly a coherent plan, but there’s a real possibility they nailed down this linebacker group in the portal, and if that’s the case, they deserve credit. Bringing back Aaron Casey (5th-best Defensive Grade among Big Ten LBs in 2022) was huge. But behind Casey was the concern exiting last season, and when considering BSB’s updated scholarship chart for 2023, there’s an argument that Indiana addressed more than just 2023 in the portal.
This is, for sure, Aaron Casey’s final season at IU, and Jacob Mangum-Farrar’s first and last. They also added two other senior linebackers in Lanell Carr and Darryl Minor, though Carr – who was originally a defensive end – has a redshirt and COVID year unused. Josh Rudolph, a junior transfer, also has a redshirt unused. That’s with redshirt sophomore Matt Hohlt awaiting. This accounts for injury, as IU fans have seen so frequently at the position, and for the development of those who might not see the field as often, with Hohlt, Kaiden Turner, and Oregon transfer Anthony Jones behind them. If this was the intention, this is smart roster construction.
Can they perform well, though? I believe yes. Lanell Carr was a versatile defensive end at West Virginia, which would lend itself to linebacker, a transition I like. From a previous BSB: “Carr’s pass-rush grade, among 40 Big 12 defensive ends with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps, was 12th.”
Josh Rudolph posted the second-best PFF Defensive Grade on an Austin Peay defense graded 20th in the FCS. I also wrote this about him previously: “...against Western Kentucky – his first collegiate start – he made 5 individual stops (offensive plays ruined due to his singular effort) and his coverage grade against Alabama was above average, even though coverage is an area he could improve upon.
“Outside of that, he was second on the team in tackles (73) and No. 4 in tackles for loss (7.5). His PFF Defense grade was 83.5, his rush-defense grade was 85.2, and his tackling grade was 80.2. Those are all plus grades. He also committed zero penalties somehow, and he made 38 stops (defined above). His role was not as a pass-rusher, but rather a gap-filler and run-stopper, and he was the heart and soul of the Austin Peay defense.”
If you read toward the bottom of my transfers rankings, you’d have seen Jacob Mangum-Farrar was down there. Among the nation’s linebackers with at least 200 snaps in 2022, Mangum-Farrar recorded the third-worst PFF Defensive Grade (36.9). I’m curious what his role will be in the defense in 2023.
Josh Henderson (and the RBs)
Tom Allen is excited about his running backs room, and so am I. Jaylin Lucas is stealing the show within the running back conversation for obvious reasons (10th-best kick return grade in FBS in 2022), but Josh Henderson had a productive season last year and, in my opinion, should have had more opportunities. This could be the year he finally does.
He had, head and shoulders, the best PFF Offensive Grade (77.5) on the team in 2022 – Cam Camper had the second-best, with 68.5 – and his rushing grade (79) ranked 13th among Big Ten RBs with at least 50 attempts. That’s with the 10th-worst graded run-blocking line in the nation. On top of that, among the same group of Big Ten RBs, Henderson recorded the second-best receiving grade.
Because of the weapons it has in the backfield, Indiana has some room to be creative in how it distributes the ball. Lucas mentioned during Big Ten Media Days that IU could even do two-back sets. A team can do a lot in both the passing and rushing game with that kind of versatility. And with three talented (read about Chris Turner here) mouths to feed, it might be necessary.
Offensive Line…Improvement
I do not think the Indiana offensive line will be good this year. However, I think it will be better than last year, which could be enough to open up the offense more than 2022.
There were some pitiful performances last season that aren’t worth digging back into that included personnel who shouldn’t have been blocking in the Big Ten. For brief context, out of 83 Big Ten offensive linemen with at least 300 snaps in 2022, Indiana’s average lineman graded 66th. I feel more optimistic about this year’s personnel, even though many of them are returners from last year. There is something to be said for continuity on an offensive line, and full spring and fall camps under Bob Bostad could pay dividends as well, especially after the improvement we saw under Rod Carey in such a short time.
Let’s look at the most likely arrangement along the line:
RT: Matt Bedford should be back, which provides a pass-blocking presence at tackle. He could play left tackle, but he’s played on the right side of the line for most of his career. This is likely a lock for this position.
RG: Kahlil Benson struggled as a redshirt sophomore, but the presence of Bedford will undoubtedly help him. We also saw Benson’s best graded performances by the end of the season, when Walt Bell and Rod Carey were making strides with the offensive philosophy against Michigan State and Purdue. This is likely Benson’s spot to lose.
C: Zach Carpenter might have had room to move to a guard position if Cameron Knight hadn’t departed, but this seems to be where he’s locked in. At this point, we probably know who Carpenter is, and that’s not great. But continuity at center is crucial in college football, so this is important.
LG: Mike Katic became one of the more reliable pass-blocking contributors along the line as the season progressed. He finished the year as Indiana’s second-highest graded lineman, though it was basically the top of the bottom of the barrel. I’m eager to see the improvements he’s made.
LT: This is where things get (more) concerning. Josh Sales quietly played more than 300 snaps last season as a redshirt freshman and would be the logical start here, but his performance was not encouraging, especially in pass blocking. If there isn’t improvement to be shown, these ideas of redshirt freshman Carter Smith or even UMass transfer Max Longman could have legs.
Doubts
40 new scholarship players
Indiana has added 40 new scholarship players to its roster this offseason, between recruits and transfers. That’s nearly half of the roster turned over.
In January, I posted the image below to Twitter, and it received mixed response.
Obviously, this has changed since January. Most of the transfers had occurred at this point (hence why I created this graph), but the addition of a handful of other players has marginally increased the green bar for Indiana. I’m not sure it matters at this point, given the outlier that Indiana already is here, especially when eliminating the inevitable positions of teams with coaching changes (RIP Northwestern).
I also created the chart below in January as well, breaking this into positions. Again, small changes are possible (especially given some position changes between DE and LB and in the secondary) but not by much.
The point I’m getting to here is that an overhaul of this magnitude is not exactly the way the portal is being used by successful programs, and obviously, if players are transferring out of your program, that’s not a great sign (we’ve all been over this already). It was necessary for Indiana because of the toll transfers had on this year’s roster (see the red bar in the first graph). That wasn’t exactly planned. Regardless, Indiana is replacing experienced talent that was quilted into a single fabric and with (mostly) inexperienced players acting as patches in the fabric. Instead of a smooth transition into the next year of an implemented system, IU’s staff is presumably weaving together a fairly new system by necessity.
This is why when Allen says that guys are still competing at nearly every position, it is concerning, because 1.) is there an established system to be competing within? Are there jobs and roles to be won? Roster upheaval of this magnitude is enough to upend any system, particularly one that never seemed rooted to begin with and now features a new co-offensive coordinator and a new co-defensive coordinator. 2.) Related to the last point, is there room for competition when the program, one would assume, approached the portal for guys who fit a certain mold needed for their system, all but eliminating the possibility for widespread competition in fall camp? 3.) If there was a system they were recruiting to, is the recruited talent not filling the needs of the system, requiring widespread competition?
So, yes, Indiana’s staff did work in the portal, more than most teams. But a new crew of faces doesn’t always equal success. It doesn’t guarantee failure either, but in the Big Ten, it makes success far more difficult.
Secondary
On this topic, the secondary is a major point of concern. That department lost 3,568 snaps among 8 departures. One might look at this and say, “Maybe that’s not so bad since Indiana received the 5th-worst coverage grade last season.” After all, Tiawan Mullen received the highest PFF Defensive Grade on the team, and that ranked 58th among Big Ten DBs. Could it get worse?
Yes. Yes, it could. Most of the lost infrastructure in the secondary was from the successful defenses of the 2019-2020 era, with Mullen, Devon Matthews, Jaylin Williams, Bryant Fitzgerald, etc. We saw how those guys could perform within a defense graded 49th in the country in 2020, regardless of the bizarre regression we also saw from them in the seasons after. And to my previous note about systems, competition, and transition, some of the departures to the portal – Chris Keys, Lem Watley-Neeley, Brylan Lanier – were young, next-up players specifically designated to transition into the roles we’re seeing unfilled this offseason, in a system specifically designed for their skillsets and intangibles. Brandon Shelby is so good at that continuation with the cornerbacks, but now they’re not there. Instead, the staff is adapting to a flood of new faces, skillsets, personalities, brains.
Now let’s say it does get better. How so? Noah Pierre and Josh Sanguinetti remain, so there is some continuation of the previous regime. Pierre will likely be a starter, depending on how much philosophies and talent change. However, his PFF Defensive Grade last season ranked 88th among Big Ten DBs (IU’s highest returner in the room). The rest requires breakout performances from several of the guys listed below…
At cornerback, the trio of Nic Toomer, Jamier Johnson, and Kobee Minor will be doing a ton of heavy lifting, to the point where we might see highly anticipated true freshman Jordan Shaw on the field a bit, or James Monds – a versatile safety. Toomer and Johnson are extremely talented (read more about them here), but it is going to be thin at the position. At safety, I must admit, your guess is as good as mine. Tyrik McDaniel, a JUCO transfer who I really like, was name-dropped by Allen in fall camp, and JoJo Johnson, the former Notre Dame DB out of Merrillville, is highly talented and was also name-dropped. Sanguinetti brings previous experience, but his performances have always left some to be desired (28th PFF Defensive Grade on the team in 2022). Bryson Bonds, Phillip Dunham, and Monds are also players who could warrant more consistent time on the field.
It’s difficult to see how this – a crew who’s rarely worked together after a crew who worked together for several years – results in better defensive performances when it was already communication and system breakdown that hurt them in 2022.
Tayven Jackson
The way Indiana is handling its quarterback competition this summer is a bit baffling. If there is legitimate competition between Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby…yikes. But if it’s just a matter of holding back who will start against Ohio State, there’s little point. Nearly everyone knows who the starter is right now – Tayven Jackson. I’m assuming that’s who Ohio State is preparing for too.
There’s very little data out there to analyze for Jackson, but I wrote this in January, when it appeared he might be the guy for the 2023 season:
“I want to like this situation, but I’m finding it difficult to see 1.) how Tayven Jackson fits into the plan Indiana has seemingly moved forward with since the last few weeks of the 2022 season, 2.) how Jackson can live up to his recruiting rankings, and 3.) if Indiana is actually following through on any sort of plan this offseason.
“After working at Rivals and around all of the recruiting networks, I’m typically suspicious of recruiting rankings. They’re often based on offers lists, which set a precedent before the network scouts even have a chance to see them in person. When looking at recruitments that were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m even more suspicious. Scouts and teams had a difficult time seeing anyone in person during those days (2020-2021). Jackson’s recruitment, even though he was in the Class of 2022, was affected by the pandemic because quarterbacks typically run one cycle ahead of everyone else in the nation, given that their position is so significant and so few can/will actually play at a Power 5 level. These guys missed out on summer camps, a huge chunk of their visit calendars (to campuses and from coaches/scouts), and other in-person interaction with coaches/scouts. What does that mean? Well, limited time to see him play in-person for recruiting networks and collegiate recruiters, lots of stock in film, and waves of players – nationally – being moved around right now (December 2022/January 2023) because teams realized what they actually had in the recruits they signed. The tail-end of Jackson’s recruitment did see some relaxing of these rules, so he did have more exposure to coaches/scouts than, say, the Classes of 2020 and 2021, but this remains significant in Tennessee’s decision to sign him.
“What I see when I watch his curated film of high school plays is a quarterback with a big arm and a lot of talent around him. To win two state titles definitely requires a certain level of mistake-free football as well. Primarily, I note an average amount of mobility, something equal to a tuck-and-run QB rather than a QB who can run an RPO-like system at the Power 5 level. That’s where I’m confused about where he fits, as Walt Bell and the Hoosier staff have clearly stated that they want a quarterback who is a dual-threat athlete. Jackson would seemingly fall below that expectation. And with Indiana’s recent history along the offensive line, I remain confused about how this helps anyone, other than Indiana raising its floor at the position with a player we can assume (could assume?) is more talented than Brendan Sorsby and Broc Lowry.
“When I see his offers list, which includes schools like Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Michigan, Oregon, Texas A&M, and many others, the prestige is impressive but most were uncommittable, and even Indiana wasn’t super high on him during his recruitment, as they pursued fellow in-stater Brady Allen from Fort Branch and had already signed Donaven McCulley in the Class of 2021. Most programs looked at Center Grove for Caden Curry, who went to Ohio State. Obviously, Jackson went to Tennessee, and he found himself in a situation where he would never be given the keys, as he was on the outside looking in with 6th-year senior Joe Milton and No. 4 overall 2023 prospect Nico Iamaleava expected to compete for the starting QB job in 2023. The Vols also brought in App State transfer QB Navy Shuler in the 2022 class.
“There’s no shame in being nudged out of Tennessee. In fact, these are the guys Indiana should be targeting – those who are being squeezed out of really successful programs. But this doesn’t feel like it’s according to any plan Indiana has set out on. On top of that, Indiana’s healthy rostered quarterbacks have now thrown a total of 10 passes. Surely, that wasn’t the plan.
“It would be silly to expect Jackson to step in and start immediately. I was hoping that Indiana would bring in a second quarterback, one who more directly fit the offensive philosophy Bell and company want to implement in 2023 and could offer time for Jackson to grow and develop.
“Jackson could very well step in and be a solid starter and run the offense as Walt Bell wants, and I would happily admit to being over-suspicious. There is some potential here with Jackson, but I’m personally pumping the brakes on what he can actually offer this offense (and vice versa!) until I see it for myself.
“Sometimes, when it comes to quarterbacks, people conflate suspicion or criticism of performance/ability with who they are as people. That’s not the case here. Tayven is a good kid and always gave me time to talk during his recruitment. This is purely about his potential, Indiana’s recruiting plan, and his potential within that plan.”
Some of the news coming out of fall camp recently suggests that Dexter Williams could return by midseason, which would be phenomenal. While Williams certainly struggled at times last year (bottom half of the Big Ten in PFF Offensive Grade among QBs), he pushed the ball downfield (highest average depth per target among qualifying Big Ten QBs) and ran the ball well (4th-best rushing grade among starting Big Ten QBs in 2022). He showed a ton of potential, and I’d personally like to see that explored more when he returns.
Great article!