Bonus Recap: Michigan

Indiana's matchup against Michigan was its closest of the season. Why was it so close?

Nov 14, 2024

This is a bonus recap digging deeper into Indiana’s close win against Michigan in Week 11. For the Gameday Roundup and the Weekly Recap, which include even more information than seen here, click on the appropriate edition.

Indiana is 10-0 entering its second bye week and its most difficult matchup on the other side. The Hoosiers vaulted to 5th in the College Football Playoff committee’s ranking, which seems to place them in a safer position than many might have expected – almost to the point where a respectable loss to Ohio State and a decisive win over Purdue could keep Indiana in the bracket, at 11-1.

But, as seen in the chart below, the Michigan game was the first matchup that seemed to stump Indiana this season, which is enough to make any fan with pessimistic tendencies a bit uneasy given Michigan’s four other losses and tough matchups still ahead.

However, it is an important reminder that Michigan ranks 5th in the Big Ten in composite talent ranking and was the physically superior team, which showed later in the game last Saturday. And even with that in mind, Indiana left the game with a 96.5% win expectancy rate and a decisive difference in net success rates. The Hoosiers were the better team; they just left a lot on the field (discussed below).

Make no mistake, though, it was a rock fight.

Yes, Michigan’s metrics were unimpressive, but this is what it’s done all season. It has a season-long average scoring margin of -2.6. The Wolverines want to get physical and messy to give their offense a chance, and Indiana fought that storm and won, even after tying its own hand behind its back.

So let’s dig deeper.

Indiana’s defense took away the run game

Let’s start with the positive. Indiana’s defense heard folks factoring in sack yardage when I noted that Indiana’s rushing defense was No. 1 nationally in rushing yards allowed after the Michigan State -36 rushing yards performance. It decided to leave no doubt against Michigan. As noted in the Preview, rushing is what Michigan wants to do. It isn’t the best at it – 45th in rushing success rate – but it is physical and talented. Teams have discovered taking away the rushing game against Michigan makes the game much easier, but that’s easier said than done and Indiana did it in a way other teams have not.

You may recall that Michigan was ranked 24th in early-down EPA coming into the game. The Wolverines run well on first and second down. Indiana took that away.

This forced Michigan into just enough third-down situations for Indiana to 1.) hold them to field goals (discussed below), and 2.) force Michigan to pass on 47% of late-down plays (only found success on 2 of 8 late-down passes). It was a bend-don’t-break strategy, and the Hoosiers didn’t break.

It should also be noted that Indiana took away the Alex Orji package. Orji, Michigan’s backup QB who operates run-first packages an average of 6 times per game when he isn’t starting, carried the ball just 3 times and fumbled once. Only Texas has limited that package to such little production.

Michigan finished the game with just 1.84 offensive line yards per rush, which ranks in the 6th percentile of all games played by FBS teams this season. This is one week after Indiana allowed the fewest line yards per rush among all FBS teams this season (0.12 to Michigan State). The Hoosiers forced only 4 TFLs, showing how talented the Michigan RBs are, but also didn’t allow a rush longer than 8 yards either.

The simple result in all of this was that Michigan averaged 3.1 yards per carry, which is a full yard fewer than its previous low this season.

On top of this, Indiana gave up the perimeter in pass defense to hold the middle of the field. This resulted in several successful passes for Michigan, which felt like gut-punches, but ultimately, it was the right thing to do. Michigan recorded 64 pass yards in the first quarter and just 73 in the three quarters after, and they actually completed the lowest percentage of passes in a game this season (50%). If you’re Bryant Haines, you take that any week.

What ultimately kept this game close?

Well, Indiana.

The Hoosiers possessed the ball for just 1:43 of the third quarter and committed a long string of unforced errors – with that third-quarter stretch at the center – that began on the play where Myles Price was injured near the end of the second quarter. Omar Cooper couldn’t disguise his downfield chip, and a drive that could have ended in a TD (given Price’s catch) ended in a FG and a 17-3 lead, rather than a 21-3 lead, entering the Middle 8. Then on Indiana’s first drive of the third quarter, Kurtis Rourke threw the INT on his own 7-yard line (resulting in a FG, 17-6), and after a drive of two sacks from Michigan, James Evans botched a punt for just 25 yards, followed by a Michigan drive that included a brutal Tyrique Tucker penalty putting Michigan at the 6 (eventual TD, 17-15). Then, Elijah Sarratt had two brutal drops that effectively ended two 4rh-quarter drives (one ending in a FG though, 20-15).

So yes, Michigan caused plenty of havoc defensively, as will be discussed below, but very few of the mistakes listed above had anything to do with anyone but Indiana, which was uncharacteristic and why the postgame win expectancy was so high.

Indiana’s redzone defense came through

Michigan has shown strength in its opponents’ territory this season. It came into the Indiana game ranked 4th in EPA/play after its opponent’s 40-yard line. It reached that area four times Saturday and scored every time; however, three of those scores were field goals. In a close game, that’s a deciding factor.

The chart below plots each of Michigan’s plays by EPA at each yard line. You can see the sudden change in effectiveness once Michigan hits the opponent 40 and also how sharply it falls once it reaches roughly the Indiana 10-yard line.

In the end, while Indiana surrendered more valuable plays between the 40- and 10-yard lines, it only surrendered the 4th-most EPA/play after its 40 than it’s surrendered all season.

Note: The top of the chart signals good performances by Indiana’s defense after its own 40-yard line.

Even outside of the redzone, there were only two drives where Michigan drove from its own territory deep into Indiana’s. Both ended in field goals. The other two were gifted to the Wolverines already in Indiana territory by the Rourke INT and the bad punt, and still, only one of those drives ended in a TD.

Indiana’s OL bends but doesn’t break

There is a lot of negativity around the OL right now, which makes sense given that the Hoosiers lost LG Drew Evans after already losing anticipated RG Nick Kidwell before the season. Tyler Stephens’ historical performances suggest that he is not exactly an ideal piece in a top-tier Big Ten OL unit. Indiana also recorded the second-fewest line yards per rush (2.02) that Michigan has allowed this season. Not ideal!

Coming into the game, this was going to be Indiana’s toughest test, in terms of the opponent’s DL, likely for the rest of the season too. There are 6 or 7 linemen in that unit that I anticipate playing in the NFL, which makes Michigan's struggles so perplexing this season. How does your defense struggle so often when this is the type of havoc being created by your DL each week?

But, after rewatching the game, I’d like to make the case that it wasn’t as bad as folks feel it was. It wasn’t great, but it also wasn’t cause for doom in the future. First, let’s look at pass protection.

Michigan’s DL gave Indiana a ton of different looks throughout the game, giving the Hoosiers a bit of their own medicine in terms of stunts and disguises, as the pass rush was layered and unpredictable from play to play. In the video below, this particular action – usually an end-tackle stunt, but 30 is a LB – where a defensive end breaks behind his neighboring tackle to hit an open gap cleared out by the tackle, matched up an NFL-caliber DE (watch 42 near the bottom) against an IU RB a couple times and hurt Indiana.

In fact, two of the Michigan sacks were attributed to Indiana RBs.

This is also how Michigan combated two of the best offensive tackles in the Big Ten (Carter Smith and Trey Wedig). Michigan also focused its rush toward the interior of the OL multiple times throughout the game, collapsing its DEs in toward Indiana center Mike Katic and the guards rather than rounding the edges.

The silver lining here is that these issues did not persist for the entire game. Indiana addressed them mid-game, and it showed in several ways. Michigan forced 20.5 QB pressures per game coming into the game but only pressed Kurtis Rourke 10 times. That is 7 fewer than its next-fewest. The issue is that those pressures resulted in 4 sacks, particularly at inopportune times.

The other piece of the conversation is run blocking, which has been a growing concern to me, to be honest. Indiana has hit 3.0 line yards per rush just once in its last five games, and that was Nebraska. A game like this (2.02 line yards per rush; 29% rushing success rate) seemed to be on the horizon, but even then, Indiana averaged 3.0 yards per carry (adjusting for sacks and sack yardage). Indiana also ran half of its rushing plays toward either shoulder of Tyler Stephens and found most of its success there, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and converting 4 of its 5 rushing first downs in that direction, which is promising.

Ultimately, though, no Power 4 team ran as poorly against Michigan this season as Indiana did. The Hoosiers ended with a negative EPA/rush and, as the EPA Roundup near the top showed, finished with a rushing performance in the 16th percentile of all 2023 FBS performances.

However, late in the game, Indiana turned to the running game often (14 rushes to 10 passes in the second half), which I will explain below. But while the running game certainly wasn’t itself, it did provide key gains that allowed Indiana to hold off the Wolverines.

What really hurt Indiana’s offense and is of greater concern to me is…

Indiana’s WRs really struggled at times

I wouldn’t suggest that there was zero success from the WRs because there absolutely was. Watch Omar Cooper eat up this Michigan DB during the first half in his first redzone target of the season.

Source: @ericklizenby

However, Michigan made some incredible schematic adjustments after a slew of Indiana passing success. Michigan historically runs about 16-18% man-to-man coverage schemes in 2024, but against Indiana, the Wolverines ramped it up to roughly 35%, particularly late in the game and particularly on the perimeter. And they mixed up their coverages as well. Based on game script and Indiana’s look, the Michigan DBs jammed Indiana’s WRs and forced them to fight, either in getting deeper into their routes or simply to find inside ground – as Ke’Shawn Williams was able to do a couple of times. Other times, Michigan would go man-to-man on the perimeter and execute zone concepts to take away the mid-level, where Indiana so often targets (Rourke has the 13th-highest attempt percentage 10-19 yards downfield in the FBS). They did an incredible job of disguising these looks pre-snap too.

Additionally, it was not an ideal game to lose Myles Price midway through, because he has been so effective at finding space in coverages and being a dynamic tool in Mike Shanahan’s scheme and was doing so early on.

The video below shows several concepts discussed so far. This was a 3rd-and-11, so Michigan had some privilege, but this defines many of the looks Indiana got from the defense in the second half.

Watch the defensive backfield and how far downfield they drop. This is obviously because of the situation but also because they took away the mid-level and had a strong DL to pressure.
Watch the Michigan defenders get hands on Indiana’s WRs. This was the most physical game Indiana’s WRs have seen so far.
Watch how Michigan disguises their look in the box. Two defenders drop back into coverage, but it’s impossible for Rourke to tell who is pressing and who isn’t. The defender in the middle (lined up right over Katic) drops back into zone coverage and blows this play up.
Watch Ty Son Lawton struggle in pass protection and compromise the pocket. It’s not his fault; he wasn’t put in a great position here. This ball was clearly meant to get out early (just to the right of the logo). Rourke just couldn’t.

Obviously, there is little the Indiana WRs can do in this specific situation, but it highlights Michigan’s approach. An example of their struggles is below.

In a game like this, Shanahan is scheming for the long-game in hopes of setting up the Michigan defense to be vulnerable in similar situations later on. For example, Michigan crashed hard on screens. Indiana had thrown 12 screens all season coming into the game but went to screens 5 times against Michigan. This actually helped in setting up a pass to Elijah Sarratt that was dropped. Watch below:

You can see Michigan’s defenders crash hard when Indiana gives a screen look and then fall vulnerable when Sarratt bolts behind them and Rourke pumps and lofts it over. Sarratt absolutely needs to make that catch, especially at this point in the game. That play took three quarters to set up.

These schematic changes by Michigan took away much of Indiana’s short passing game and, eventually, a layered passing attack, which is why the Hoosiers turned to running the ball (see the chart above) when they needed to simultaneously milk the clock in the fourth but also gain some yardage.

This felt like the first time all season that the opponent’s talent in the defensive backfield challenged, and even bested, Indiana’s talent at WR. Going man-to-man says something.

While the drops from Elijah Sarratt are becoming a Thing (see the most recent Recap), I anticipate Indiana finding ways to fight this off in the future, whether that is calling more explosive pass plays or leaning more on slot WRs, which we’re seeing recently with Williams and is something this offensive system has done a lot in the past. If you listen to CrimsonCast, you may have heard me say recently that I anticipate more explosive plays by the slot WRs in the future too, which would combine those two ideas above.

But if not, applying pressure to Indiana WRs and blanketing the mid-level could be a recipe to stopping this offense because it really gums up what makes the offense operational and threatening. The good news for Indiana is not just anybody is capable of doing that. Michigan has so much talent on defense.

Michigan tackled well

This is a small thing, but it was real. Michigan posted its best PFF tackling grade of the season against Indiana. According to PFF, only Ty Son Lawton and Myles Price forced any missed tackles at all, and they combined for 4. Indiana doesn’t necessarily lean on missed tackles, but 4 is the fewest it’s forced this season, and it correlated with season-lows in second-level and open-field rushing yards as well as passing explosiveness, according to CollegeFootballData.com.