On Indiana's defense and Connor Bazelak
Indiana's defense has been capital-B Bad, but can we possibly grade Bazelak?
Indiana might have covered the spread against Maryland, but it dropped a game that was entirely winnable, docking its record to 3-4 headed into a road game at Rutgers.
Even more significant, in terms of Bite-Sized Bison’s interests, was IU missing on the opportunity to prove that the doomsday analytics, such as an overall PFF grade of 122nd out of 131 FBS programs (second-worst among Power 5 programs), are too harsh on the Hoosiers.
Alas, we are discussing eye-popping statistics about the downfall of the Indiana defense and how to square Connor Bazelak’s performance at quarterback in 2022.
Indiana’s defensive slip-slide
While turnovers certainly didn’t assist the Hoosiers against Maryland on Saturday, the defense didn’t live up to the reputation it has garnered during the Tom Allen Era either, allowing Maryland to score 14 additional points after Taulia Tagovailoa went down with an injury when it could have — and should have — shut the door on the Terps.
It’s been a long season for Allen’s defense, as it enters its third consecutive season with a new coordinator and continues to slide toward the bottom of Power Five rankings. Its PFF grade, 105th in the nation, is the second-worst in the Big Ten, and its ESPN SP+ rating, 74th, is the worst in the Big Ten.
This all comes just two seasons after Indiana reached national recognition, in large part because of its defense and a record-setting interception pace (2.13 interceptions per game, the most by any program in 17 years).
So, 7 games into the 2022 season, how far exactly is Indiana from that 2020 defense led by Kane Wommack? Pretty far. Statistics can tell that story fairly quickly. Between a drop from a 19% havoc rate to 15%, a steep climb from 0.137 predicted passing points added per play to 0.415, and a sharp drop from 23rd in the nation in available yards allowed to 68th, the 2021 season does not appear to be an aberration on the defensive side, which is concerning since Allen is currently running that unit.
(Havoc is defined as the percentage of plays when the defense creates a havoc event, such as a sack, tackle for loss, interception, etc. Predicted points added are the amount of points a unit adds to a team’s total during each play. Source: CollegeFootballData.com)
Statistically, there actually have been improvements!
Indiana’s Front Seven havoc percentage (havoc events such as TFLs, sacks, etc.) has actually risen 1% since 2020.
Line yards per rush (the ground gained by the opponent’s offensive line) has decreased by 0.5 yards per rush.
Indiana’s predicted points added against opponent rushing attacks is a plus-rating this year, at 0.005, and has decreased from 0.126 in 2020.
Indiana’s pass pressures against opponents’ true pass sets (sets that don’t include screens, play-action, rollouts, etc.) are only 13 behind 2020’s total (80-67).
And, strangely, Indiana is allowing fewer points in the third quarter than in 2020 (down to 5.2 from 5.8).
That’s about it! Aaron Casey and Cam Jones have taken on a lion’s share in replacing Micah McFadden and have done a decent job of it, while the defensive front has improved as well, even though one would like to see a better pass rush than the below-average performances against Michigan, Cincinnati, and Illinois.
So, what’s the difference? Well, many diminutive, complicated factors that are affected by a change in coordinators, first of all. Kane Wommack’s creativity within and outside of the 4-2-5 system Allen requires his defense to play is greatly missed. Small things, such as blitzing schemes and pursuits, and not as an entire group but on an individual level getting each player into impactful positions.
Indiana has also been running the same 4-2-5 system since 2016, without many foundational changes. The largest change this year might be the simple addition of a player like Dasan McCullough, who doesn’t fit one mold.
A combination of those concepts has clearly affected the secondary, which is at the heart of most signals of regression in recent years. I addressed the regression seen in the secondary a couple of weeks ago, but I’ll add to it here.
The Hoosier secondary has tumbled, both to the naked eye and in analytics. The largest difference is the interception havoc, falling from top in the nation in 2020 (2.13 interceptions per game) to 119th in 2021 (0.42). They sit at 0.71 through seven games this year. The defensive back havoc rate has been nearly sliced in half, from 9% to 5% in two years, and quarterbacks are posting a 110.6 NFL Passer Rating against Indiana, up from 74.8 in 2020.
Also, from a 30,000-foot view, Indiana simply allows more passing yards. It wasn’t stellar in 2020, allowing 241 per game, but the bottom has dropped in 2022, as the Hoosiers allow the 13th-most in the conference (280).
The defense misses its playmakers. It misses Micah McFadden, who could make the secondary’s job a bit easier, but most importantly, it misses guys like Jamar Johnson, who intercepted 4 passes and broke up 4 passes in 2020. It also misses the previous versions of the players who are currently on the team – back when Tiawan Mullen had 3 interceptions and 5 pass break-ups, Reese Taylor (now at Purdue) had 1 interception and 4 pass break-ups, Jaylin Williams had 4 interceptions and 1 pass break-up, and Devon Matthews had 1 interception and 5 pass break-ups. The entire Indiana defensive back corps this season has recorded 4 interceptions and 15 pass break-ups.
Thanks, in large part, to the 2020 IU secondary, teams struggled to cross their own 40-yard line against that defense. IU ranked 25th in the nation in even allowing its opponents to cross its own 40-yard line; it ranks 70th this season. Then, the Hoosiers allowed opponents to cross the IU 40-yard line 47 times in 2020, allowing 2.6 points per opportunity; in 2022, it’s already allowed opponents to cross that mark 50 times for 3.6 points per opportunity. Relatedly, Indiana allowed the 35th-most red zone attempts in 2020, with 3.1 per game, and now it allows the 109th-most, with 4.5.
Lastly, the speed and aggression Indiana played with in 2020 hasn’t manifested in 2022, particularly from the secondary. In coverage this year, Indiana has already missed 42 tackles through 7 games. In 13 games in 2020, it missed 37 tackles in coverage. The result? The Hoosiers have already surrendered 64 more yards after catches than they did two years ago (943 to 1,007).
As the teeth of the secondary have gone, so have the teeth of the IU defense. After 17 interceptions in 2020, the IU secondary has forced just 10 in its last 19 games, leaving Indiana with a corresponding drop in turnover margin — from +1.0 in 2020 (8th in the nation), to -1.3 in 2021 (129th), to -0.3 in 2022 (82nd). Unless the Hoosiers can find a massive wave of takeaways in the final five games of the 2022 season, that identity of takeaways that Allen pushed for so long is no longer tenable.
As mentioned earlier, there is no one reason for this degradation on the defensive side of the ball, but regardless, since Allen has become the program’s head coach, the Hoosiers’ identity has been tightly tied to its defense, and the defense is not holding up.
Can we possibly grade Connor Bazelak this season?
It has been a long, long time since Indiana has been able to put its trust in one quarterback for the entirety of a season. And with Connor Bazelak struggling early on, many fans have shouted for Jack Tuttle throughout the year. Now, Tuttle is in the transfer portal, and the only true option behind Bazelak is Dexter Williams, who redshirted the 2020 season and injured his ACL in the spring of 2021.
It’s the Bazelak show, as it has been all season. But can we actually grade Bazelak as a quarterback this season? The statistics say: not really.
It’s easy to continue beating the dead horse that is offensive line woes, but those woes exist, and they affect quarterback play (I promise I’m trying to discuss other things). The transfer quarterback has received little to no support on the field this season. Just look at this:
Bazelak has been pressured on a nation-high 123 dropbacks this season, 107 being the direct fault of the offense, 16 being exceptional play from the defense. How many of those 107 pressures are credited to Bazelak? Just 6. He leads the country in dropbacks (360) and still ranks 31st in percent of dropbacks under pressure (34.2%)
Under pressure, Bazelak’s offensive grade is dismal (39.5), but it comes with the 9th-shortest amount of time given in the pocket when pressured, just 3.0 seconds.
In those 3 seconds, he only commits turnover-worthy plays on 3.8% of pressured dropbacks (32nd in nation), ranks 21st in the nation in drop percentage when under pressure, and ranks 35th in sack percentage (15.4%).
There is nobody in the country being pressured at the rate and with the same consistency and consequence as Bazelak, yet 74% of Indiana’s non-penalty first downs come from his arm.
(All of the above statistics are out of the 93 quarterbacks in FBS play who have recorded at least 50 dropbacks under pressure.)
Is all of this impressive? Not exactly. But it is notable that a situation that is capital-B Bad could be much worse with another quarterback.
One of the many points made when arguing that Indiana should switch quarterbacks is that even when he gets clean looks, Bazelak doesn’t look good. That is somewhat true. Most of the clean dropbacks Bazelak is recording are because of the quick, short throws necessary to avoid pressure from the ineptitude of the offensive line. Bazelak spends an average of just 2.2 seconds in the pocket when he has a clean dropback. That’s the lowest in the Big Ten.
When kept clean, he has the third-worst PFF passing grade in the Big Ten (65.5), is 9th in turnover-worthy plays (3.2% of dropbacks), and is third worst in adjusted completion percentage (69.7%). But again, he ranks 11th in the conference in clean dropback percentage.
(All of the above statistics are out of the 14 Big Ten quarterbacks who have recorded at least 20 dropbacks under pressure.)
In the two years Bazelak spent as the starting quarterback in Missouri, he posted a 75.6 PFF offensive grade in 2020 and a 67.8 offensive grade in 2021. Fast-forward to Week 8 and Bazelak boasts a 56.1. That 2020 grade was 6th among SEC quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks; the likelihood that Bazelak regressed simply by transferring to Indiana is slim. It might have more to do with the fact that he has been pressured nearly as many times through 7 games at Indiana (123) as he was in two seasons at Missouri (172).