QBs and Malik Reneau
What is IU doing with its QBs? Good question!
Indiana lost a bad one against Penn State on Saturday, which leaves the Hoosiers as a 41.5-point dog to Ohio State next week. With the way this offense is executing and ESPN SP+ having the defense (92nd) rated behind the offense (80), that spread feels generous.
While this newsletter will remain steadfast in its analysis of IU Football, there is a basketball note at the bottom of this edition, if you’re seeking some joy among the gloom of what has become Indiana’s football program since 2020.
Indiana’s QB strategy
To start, the way this was handled outside of numbers was obviously baffling. The guys at CrimsonCast did an excellent job of explaining why it was so bizarre, from not disclosing an apparent injury to Connor Bazelak before the game, to starting Jack Tuttle (in the transfer portal), to sending out true freshman Brendan Sorsby before redshirt sophomore Dexter Williams. Not much of this made any sense, but this is a numbers column, so if you want deeper discussion around that, definitely listen to the CrimsonCast recap episode.
And as far as numbers go, it would be irresponsible of me to not add context to this. Fans have been calling for Tuttle for weeks (I personally heard fans do this during Week 3). In response to some of those rumblings, I wrote about our ability to even grade Bazelak because of the awful offensive line, which now ranks 119th in the country in pass blocking, according to PFF. Some fans might see Tuttle’s raw numbers (9-of-12, 82 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, 0 turnover-worthy plays, 90% adjusted completion percentage) and be hungry for more Tuttle in the future, if he’s healthy.
That’s fine! Tuttle’s a former four-star QB who played meaningful football during the famed 2020 season and more. In the end, though, playing Tuttle helps Indiana Football in no way. He likely won’t return next season, and the Hoosiers, at this point, are light years away from a bowl berth. The lens at the position must shift to 2023, offering opportunities for the next quarterbacks, and the chance to learn in those opportunities, given the ineptitude of the line, is already slim.
Now, with all of that said, it should also be noted that Tuttle, compared to the other quarterbacks in that game, had the benefit of a Walt Bell-scripted drive, which actually have been effective in most games. These drives have featured plenty of creativity (and scores!), but they come in limited supply because Indiana’s offensive line cuts off all oxygen to any sort of playbook. The drive that was clearly scripted by the IU offensive coordinator was the touchdown drive early in the first quarter – 8 plays, 75 yards – and featured Tuttle going 4-for-4 for 64 yards and his lone touchdown.
That drive was the most promising that Indiana’s offense looked all game, and it helped Tuttle earn an offensive grade that Indiana hasn’t seen from its quarterback since Bazelak in the Illinois game. Granted, Tuttle only took 19 dropbacks compared to Bazelak’s average of 50. He knows, all too well, how difficult it is to stay healthy behind Indiana’s offensive line.
This shouldn’t take away from Tuttle at all. He will go somewhere that suits him next year and play well, surely, but, based on what Allen has communicated since the game, it appears Williams is next in line behind Bazelak, so let’s look at how he performed.
It was fairly dismal, with an offensive grade of 40, though it’s unfair to grade him by that number given how strangely Indiana’s staff has handled this position and because he only recorded 13 dropbacks (please keep this in mind as you read the rest of this newsletter). So let’s dig a bit deeper:
He pushes the ball downfield. This is big. Bazelak has peaked at 10.5 yards in average depth of target (against Idaho). That number hovered around 10 at the beginning of the year. But since then, Bazelak has bottomed his ADOT at 5.8 yards, and Tuttle posted a 3.3 (!!) Saturday (Sorsby was 8.8). That is awful for many different reasons – lack of receiving options, lack of confidence, lack of time in the pocket, abandonment of downfield passing (obviously), lack of versatility and explosiveness in this offense. But on 11 attempts, Williams’ ADOT was 11.8.
Six of his 11 passes traveled further than 10 yards downfield, and if it weren’t for a dropped pass, Williams would have finished 3-for-4 between 10 and 19 yards downfield. Tuttle threw one pass further than 10 yards downfield.
Williams gave himself life. The sophomore faced 8 defensive pressures (yes, on THIRTEEN DROPBACKS), yet zero of those pressures resulted in sacks. In comparison, 3 of Tuttle’s 7 pressures were sacks and 2 of Sorsby’s 3 were sacks. Another comparison: Only 20 of Bazelak’s 136 pressures have resulted in sacks.
On a related note, Williams can run. Williams, in his small sample size, posted the best running grade of any IU quarterback since Nov. 28, 2020 (Mike Penix vs. Maryland). That includes an entire season of Donaven McCulley running because he couldn’t pass. Williams finished the game with 4 carries for 24 yards.
Decision-making must improve. Two interceptions in 13 dropbacks is not going to cut it, regardless of the opponent.
When evaluating this entire situation, I’ve asked myself, “Who benefits from this?” Does Indiana benefit by playing its transfer quarterbacks in hopes that other quarterbacks will want to transfer to Bloomington? Does Tuttle benefit by showing he can still play for another program out there in the transfer quarterback market? Does Bazelak benefit because he’s been one of the most under-appreciated players on the team all season? It’s tough to tell at this point, but one thing is clear: Dexter Williams definitely benefited by his performance Saturday.
Execute regardless of time?
Tom Allen had an interesting quote after the game Saturday when he said, “the bottom line is, no matter how much time you have or don't have, you have to execute.” It seemed like he might have been casting off using the offensive line play as an excuse but then went directly into how the offensive line hurt the team. Regardless, it got me thinking about the amount of time the offensive line gives this offense to make plays. It’s bad, folks.
Bill Connelly, who runs the ESPN SP+ formula, tweets advanced analytics box scores (very ugly for Indiana vs. Penn State as a whole), and one of the figures that jump out was that Indiana averaged -0.3 yards per rush before making contact with a defender. In comparison, Northwestern – against Ohio State! – averaged 1.1 yards before contact. Ohio State averaged 3.4 in that same game. (Another note from that box score: Indiana had a 0.0% (!!) success rate in the Middle 8 minutes. BAD!)
In addition to that specific box score, Indiana’s run blocking grade from PFF has fallen to 122nd in the country. It’s difficult to blame the running backs for not executing when their offensive line is earning 2.7 line yards per rush (second-worst in the conference, behind Iowa, with 2.6).
In terms of time allowed to execute in the passing game behind this offensive line, Connor Bazelak’s 2.47 seconds to throw is ranked 13th-worst in the country among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this year. That has undoubtedly affected Bazelak’s execution, as his PFF passing grades have dropped to second-worst in the conference.
Malik Reneau is the (third) man
There is plenty of reason to be excited about freshman five-star guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, and I am extremely hyped to watch him grow and play in Bloomington – whether that be one year or more – but I’m even more ecstatic about Malik Reneau. Now that one game is over, this isn’t quite the hot take that it was when I was examining this team and talking to others about it pre-season, but Reneau is such a necessary figure on an Indiana roster, in terms of raising the floor for what this team can achieve.
As the third big man, Reneau will liberate what Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson can do by taking pressure off both of them to stay out of foul trouble and allow them to remain aggressive. His matured skillset also raises his value from simply a safety net to a real option that will demand minutes. His level of play raises the collective value of Indiana’s frontcourt, and we saw that on display during his 17 minutes against Morehead State, when he recorded 15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks, an assist, a steal, and a 103 KenPom offensive rating.
Imagine a third big man being an asset! How long has it been since Indiana could say that? Likely, Max Bielfeldt. It’s far too early to say where Reneau will fall on the below list, but at the moment, it seems like the sky is the limit for the big freshman.
Source: KenPom.com and Sports Reference