Week 7: Previewing Maryland
Jaylin Lucas, Emery Simmons, Defensive subs, Maryland scouting rep
Indiana takes on a Maryland team that has not exactly played up to the level that data analytics believe it can in 2022, which leaves the Terrapins as a somewhat beatable opponent for Indiana — or, at least one of the more beatable opponents left on Indiana’s schedule.
If Indiana wants to reach a bowl in 2022, which Punt John Punt noted is a 7% chance according to ESPN SP+, then this game is likely one that Indiana needs to win. ESPN SP+ gives Maryland an 81% chance to win with a 15-point favor, and, as of Tuesday evening, the spread favors Maryland by 11.5.
If you missed any of Bite-Sized Bison’s offensive line discussion in the last two posts, you can read about them in the links below:
If you already have, thank you, and let’s get started on Maryland.
Jaylin Lucas is an absolute burner
Freshman running back Jaylin Lucas has Indiana fans eager for explosion in this 2022 offense. As much as Indiana has struggled to produce on offense recently, the Hoosiers rank 7th in the conference in plays of 10+ yards, 10th for 20+ yards, 3rd for 30+ yards, and 6th for 40+ yards. But as the offense bogs down with the progression of the season – IU ranks 110th now in offensive available yards – fans are calling for Walt Bell to hit the throttle with Lucas.
Lucas has touched the ball 16 times for 128 yards this season. That’s 8.0 yards per play. The eyes can tell us all we need to know about Lucas, as he seems to reach a gear few on the roster can attain, and PFF gives him the second-highest Elusiveness Rating in the country among running backs with at least 10 attempts. He leads all Big Ten running backs in this stat and is one of just five within the national top-50. He is also tied for fifth in this same group with 9.1 yards per attempt.
Please note: 16 touches is an extremely small sample size!
It’s a small sample size, but the fact remains that Lucas, if given the opportunity, is shaping up to be one of the most explosive players in the conference.
He is what Indiana fans have come to recognize as a “gadget guy,” so while he saw a three-fold increase in snaps (from 11 to 32) between games last week, 17 came from the backfield, eight came from slot, and seven came from out wide. Of the six passing and receiving regions less than 10 yards downfield (short left, short center, short right, and the three regions behind the line of scrimmage), Lucas has been targeted exactly once in each region. He has needed to create explosion through screens, since there hasn’t been enough time for downfield plays to develop, but with a weaker Maryland pass rush, there’s a chance he could catch some deeper balls.
Lucas is an essential part of the Indiana offense, especially with DJ Matthews sidelined. Because it is limited in what it can do, given its struggles on the line, players like Lucas expand the playbook. However, until he develops into a stronger back (he still grades below Josh Henderson in rushing, per PFF), it will be difficult to leave him on the field for too many snaps, given his frame (5-9, 170) and his pass protection woes.
Emery Simmons flashed when he needed to
Last weekend, Emery Simmons finally cashed in for a game Indiana fans thought they’d see more of when he transferred in from North Carolina. He caught a team-high 7 passes for 57 yards and appears to be the receiver most capable of replacing DJ Matthews in the slot, much to the relief of Cam Camper, who is still tied for fifth in the nation with 69 targets, even after missing a game. This strategy is a bit odd, though, given that Simmons only ever played 8 snaps in the slot at North Carolina (344 out wide) and now already has 212 snaps at slot for Indiana (just 4 out wide). This was the case even before the Matthews injury and could explain his slower-than-expected start in 2022, as he adjusts to the new role.
Indiana has positioned AJ Barner at the slot position more often than inline, where a tight end is traditionally expected to play, so when he was unavailable against Michigan, Indiana needed Simmons, who has now quietly played twice as many snaps at slot than Matthews, to step up. Simmons is, obviously, the much-preferred option at slot, and he is graded as the second-best slot receiver on the team by PFF.
When DJ Matthews returns, he will surely be placed back into the slot position, where he’s played all but one snap this season. Camper has needed help, as life will become much more difficult for him as Indiana’s most reliable pass catcher in a Big Ten East schedule. His 2 catches for 39 yards made that clear against Michigan.
What will be interesting to see is how Indiana will play Simmons, who is graded as the fourth-best non-running back receiving option on the team, when Matthews returns and takes the slot position back. He might be moved out wide, where he has the experience and where his talent is needed opposite Camper.
Replacing Cam Jones and Jaylin Williams
Bradley Jennings Jr. and Chris Keys found themselves in fairly critical positions against Michigan, replacing Cam Jones and Jaylin Williams on Saturday, and both, for the most part, performed well in their spots.
When I was covering recruiting on the Indiana beat, the program was quietly excited about Keys when he came to Indiana from the state of Mississippi, particularly because of his frame and his aggression, and Brandon Shelby has done a good job of developing the sophomore so quickly, even with the ACL injury in 2021.
Keys posted the best defensive grade of any Hoosier last week, allowing just one catch on two targets in his direction during 23 coverage snaps, as JJ McCarthy elected to throw toward Tiawan Mullen six times for four completions. Indiana will need another stronger performance from Keys, as he will be lined up across from a top-100 wide receiver recruit on every down he plays versus Maryland.
Jennings led the team in tackles, with 13, and stops – plays stopped because of his individual effort – with three. But he also had a couple of missed tackles and allowed four catches on five targets in his direction. Jennings has always left some to be desired in coverage, which is frightening this week against Maryland, but his overall defensive grade has bumped from 45 and 57 in his last two years at Miami to 65 this year at Indiana.
Maryland scouting report
Maryland poses an interesting matchup for Indiana. Anticipate plenty of passing. Maryland is probably the weakest of the teams in the Big Ten who can actually run the ball, as it ranks ninth in the conference in rushing offense, with 157 yards per game (next best is Purdue at 119 yards per game).
The Terrapins, though, have a very strong passing attack, graded fourth in the nation by PFF and stands second in the Big Ten with 304 yards per game. Taulia Tagovailoa has developed into the passing threat Maryland has been hoping for since he stepped onto campus in 2019, as he is graded by PFF as the fifth-best passer in the nation and tends to primarily make mistakes when he throws further than 20 yards downfield, where four of his five interceptions and six of his seven turnover-worthy plays have taken place. His receivers have made his life a bit easier too.
The Maryland receiving corps is loaded with talent. The two top-100 recruits, in Rakim Jarrett (No. 4 WR in 2020) and Jacob Copeland (No. 12 WR in 2022) provide heavy threats on the outside, and senior JeShaun Jones is a playmaker from the slot. Dontay Demus, in his fifth year, has been a consistent playmaker at 6-foot-3 and averages 16.2 yards per catch during his career.
But the greatest threat for Indiana, and the Big Ten at large, is tight end Corey Dyches. There aren’t many tight ends like Dyches in the Big Ten, particularly the Big Ten East — with his athleticism at 6-2, 220 — and Indiana’s closest resemblance so far was Michigan’s Luke Schoonmaker, who caught 9 passes on 10 targets for a touchdown and three first downs. Dyches will offer a more vertical threat than Schoonmaker, since he averages 14.6 yards per catch and has 6 targets (four catches) deeper than 20 yards downfield. He leads Maryland with 322 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns and is second on the team with 22 receptions, and he grades as the top receiving tight end in the conference with at least 20 targets.
Defensively is where Maryland tends to struggle. The Terps allow about 23 points per game (10th in the Big Ten) and are graded by PFF as the 75th defense in the nation. They allow teams to earn 47% of available yards too, which is 65th in the country. This is largely thanks to a weak pass rush, which ranks 113th in the nation, but the Hoosiers can make any pass rush look good this year, as they’ve earned pass blocking grades in true pass sets that would equal a near non-existent offensive line.
At the very least, Connor Bazelak should have a bit more time in the pocket than his 2.96 seconds this year.