Xavier Preview and Mike Penix
Basketball! and Mike Penix!
Indiana Basketball is starting about as strongly as fans would have liked to see this season, through two games, and now the Hoosiers sit at No. 8 overall in KenPom rankings — 16th offensively and 6th defensively — but they have their most significant test to date in Xavier.
What’s inside today’s BSB:
Xavier preview
Indiana Football (I guess)
Mike Penix is ballin’ out
Xavier preview
There is little that can be learned about a team in the first two games, particularly statistically, but we’re going to go through the exercise anyway, as Indiana goes on the road for a game against Xavier, a game which KenPom gives Indiana a 57% to win. The Musketeers come off a WNIT Championship and welcome Sean Miller back as their head coach following a six year stint from 2004-2009.
Jack Nunge is the concerning factor for Indiana. A 7-foot big man who can shoot from outside, Nunge recorded the 18th-best offensive rating in the country, according to KenPom, and attempted 101 three-pointers, the third-most on the team. Nunge was just beginning to put things together toward the end of last season, finally becoming a more consistent scorer (18 of final 20 games in double-digit scoring). Ideally, he’d be more of a threat on the boards, but as sometimes happens with big men who stretch the floor, he hasn’t posted numbers one would expect for his size (just 7 double-digit rebounding performances and the 174th defensive rebound percentage). Seeing how Indiana matches up against Nunge will be interesting, however, as Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson will need to shade toward the perimeter.
Colby Jones has shown early signs of making the leap his team needs after losing two senior guards last season. According to EvanMiya.com, Jones has the highest total efficiency rating on the team through the first two games. He’s on the floor as often as anyone, playing as a tall third guard, at 6-foot-6, and averaging 13.5 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists per game. It seems early on that most of Xavier’s offensive facilitation will work through Jones.
After averaging nearly 20 points per game at UTEP last season, Souley Boum has also proved to be productive early in the season, He has an effective field goal percentage of 88.5% (!), which ranks 25th in the country. He’s also hit 5-of-7 threes, alongside fellow starting guard KyKy Tandy, who has hit 4-of-7. Xavier ranks 19th in the country in three-point shooting.
Comparing this year’s team to last year’s team, one pattern that shows through the data is that Xavier doesn’t make many unforced errors on offense, but it is susceptible to steals. Last season they ranked 228th in offensive steal percentage but 21st in offensive non-steal percentage. This year, they’re already at 342nd in steal percentage and 6th in non-steal percentage. As a team, they’ve committed 29 turnovers in their first two games, and Indiana is 52nd in the country in steal percentage. The Hoosiers could disrupt the Musketeers early and often.
This was always going to be the toughest team Indiana played at this point in the season, and Xavier presents challenges in both the frontcourt and the backcourt, but if Xavier doesn’t show the 20-place improvement defensively that KenPom suggests (82nd in 2021-22 to 62nd this year), then the Musketeers could really be overwhelmed by Indiana’s 16th ranked offense.
Indiana Football (I guess)
There’s so little to say about this team at this point. Ohio State covered on Saturday despite a -41 spread, and Indiana only looked marginally competitive after a 49-yard pitch-and-catch from Dexter Williams to Andison Coby. So I’m going to put the “bite-sized” in today’s Bite-Sized Bison by listing some data I found mildly interesting from that game.
Taiwan Mullen played well! Given his regression this season, I anticipated these Ohio State receivers to eat him up, as we’ve seen from lesser competition. However, Mullen posted the fifth-best defensive grade on the day and allowed just 3 catches on 8 targets in his direction. Those 3 catches amounted to 36 yards and ZERO touchdowns. Jaylin Williams allowed 3-of-4 for 2 touchdowns.
Mike Katic (82) and Luke Haggard (89) posted superior pass blocking grades, for whatever that is worth. The un blocking grades, across the board, were awful. Katic, as I mentioned during the bye week, has shown improvement this season that he could carry into next year. In replacing injured right tackle Josh Sales, Parker Hanna posted a 0 (!) pass blocking grade in 7 snaps before being replaced by freshman Carter Smith, who posted a 14 pass blocking grade in a team-high 61 snaps.
Malachi Holt-Bennett, someone I’ve been high on since his recruitment, appears to be the next in line behind Andison Coby on the outside. Despite being targeted just twice, he played the third-most passing snaps on the team, with 22. This shows the confidence the team has in him at the position, as he played more snaps than Emery Simmons, who is capable of playing outside but remains at slot through injuries to Cam Camper and DJ Matthews. Holt-Bennett and Coby were the only two offensive players to post positive EPAs (Estimated Points Added) on the team.
This was a no-win situation for Dexter Williams. He was pressured on 12 of 28 dropbacks and was sacked 4 times. But again, he pushed the ball downfield, recording the highest average depth of target by an IU quarterback this season (13.9 yards). That paid off in big ways. His 6-of-19 day was far from impressive, and he received a pretty rough offensive grade from PFF (50.9), but he made zero turnover-worthy plays, had a 41.2 adjusted completion percentage, and was given an 87.0 NFL passer rating by PFF. These are all pretty promising signs in his second game and against a College Football Playoff-caliber team.
In general, Indiana is so bad, folks.
Indiana has fallen to 128th out of 131 in PFF’s Overall Grade. It’s also ranked 128th in offense and 113th in defense.
The Hoosiers have also fallen to 92nd overall in ESPN’s SP+ ratings. They’re at 66th (!) in offense and 112th in defense according to this metric as well.
According to BCF Toys’ FEI Rating, Indiana is 74th overall in average scoring advantage on a neutral field (88th offensively and 49th defensively).
Staying with BCF Toys, Indiana is 120th in the country in net points per drive, with -1.08. They’re 119th offensively and 90th defensively. The Hoosiers have also fallen to 122nd in net available yards, 124th in offensive available yards gained (32.3%) and 81st in defensive available yards (48.7%).
There are several more metrics that could be gathered, but none of them look any better than these. It’s a massive failure in Bloomington.
Mike Penix is ballin’ out
In an effort to find some (maybe) positive news surrounding Indiana Football, let’s discuss Mike Penix Jr., who led Washington, along with Kalen DeBoer, Nick Sheridan, and William Inge, past former No. 6 Oregon on Saturday, ruining the Ducks’ chances at a College Football Playoff appearance. Penix averaged 11.6 yards per dropback!
Penix, of course, has been stellar. While Washington is graded by PFF as the nation’s 14th-best offense, it’s graded as the 7th-best passing offense. Statistically, it is the best, with 374 passing yards per game, and Penix is the individual passing leader nationally as well, with 364 passing yards per game.
Most notably, Penix has played in all 10 of Washington’s games this season. He never played in more than 6 for Indiana. That is directly connected to Washington’s 8th-ranked pass-blocking line. Indiana’s line never graded higher than 67th with Penix on its roster. He’s been pressured on just 21.8% of his dropbacks, whereas at Indiana, he was pressured on 32.3% of his dropbacks. This improved blocking has led to more production across several areas of Penix’s game too, outside of staying on his feet in the pocket.
And the Penix college football is seeing this year, is wildly similar to the quarterback and offensive system Indiana fans watched DeBoer and company birth in Bloomington in 2019.
Source: Pro Football Focus, CFB Stats, BCF Toys, CFB Data
When many fans think of the DeBoer system at Indiana, they think of the screen game, set up by big receivers, to get playmakers the ball in space. Whop Philyor was a huge beneficiary of this type of system, as Indiana threw screen concepts on 22.4% of Penix’s dropbacks. However, Washington is only throwing screens on 15.1% of his dropbacks this year, and only 376 of his 3,640 yards have come from screens. DeBoer’s system was shaped to Indiana’s bad offensive line in 2019 and was still efficient and successful. Let it also be known that Peyton Ramsey was graded 24th overall among the nation’s quarterbacks that season after Penix went down. It’s as much a testament to DeBoer’s offensive mind as it is to Penix as a quarterback.
Visiting Penix’s success this season is meant in both celebration of someone who fans will always view as part of the Hoosier program but also to point to why some fans mistrust the current regime when given promising pieces to develop and deploy. It’s difficult to blame them.